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NVDA情報局(フラグ)

投資家目線でNVDAを買い煽るためのメモです

出荷数から見たGPU市場 ~Jon Peddie Research リポートをもとに~

                            f:id:booniebichon:20161125013318p:plain

売る材料が全くない。

売りを勧めるアナリストもほぼ消滅した。

おそらくNVDAはQ4でも史上最高のレヴェニュー&EPSを叩き出すだろう。

 

ということは。。。

 

そろそろNVDAとお別れの時期が近づいているのか~

さみしいなぁ。

 

iGPU  = integrated GPU

dGPU = discrete GPU

GC     = graphic card

AIB    = add in board 

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Mark Hibben(Seeking Alpha contributer)

NVDA Gains GPU Market Share In Q3

Nov. 18, 2016 1:22 PM ET

 

・Summary Data from Jon Peddie Research shows that NVDA took GPU market share away from AMD in Q3.

・The research data focuses on PC applications for GPUs, and thus ignores NVDA GPU sales in the DC for high performance computing and AI, as well as automotive.

・I expect NVDA to gain even more share in PC GPUs in Q4.

 

According to from JPR, NVDA gained market share in PC GPUs compared to last quarter. While the gain was not great, it was enough to halt AMD's GPU market share growth of H1.

 

・With the introduction of the entry level GTX 1050 and 1050 Ti, NVDA is poised to continue gaining share in Q4.

f:id:booniebichon:20161125010951p:plain

Source: Jon Peddie Research

 

〇 Undercounted GPUs

・JPR data for GPUs is focused exclusively on the PC market, ignores the use of GPUs in the DC.

・Thus JPR's results only include desktop dGPUs that are present in graphics cards (called by them AIB), and present in notebooks.

・Also counted are processors, such as AMD's APUs and many Intel processors for mobile applications that include on-board graphics processing. This increases the count of AMD's GPU shipments, relative to NVDA.

・But not counted are NVDA's shipments of GPUs for HPC and DL applications in the DC. Also not counted are NVDA's shipments of Tegra processors, which also include on-board GPUs.

・This will become an even more important segment for NVDA as it ships more Drive PX‐2 solutions for Tesla motor's new Autopilot system, since these include both high performance Pascal GPUs as well as the latest Parker generation Tegra that also feature Pascal architecture graphics.

・So the reader should take the JPR data with a grain of salt, since the data ignores important growth areas for NVDA.

 

〇 neither market share gain nor profitability was to be AMD's lot in Q3.

 the Computing and Graphics segment of AMD still posted an operating loss of $66 million on revenue of $472 million (which includes processors, APUs for PS4 etc and GPUs).

・See the stark contrast between AMD's unprofitability in Q3 and the huge revenue and profit gains of NVDA in its fiscal Q3.

・NVDA's GPU revenue of $1.697 billion was alone larger than AMD's total revenue, and was up 53% y/y. NVDA posted a GAAP operating income of $708 million, up 130% y/y, while AMD posted a GAAP operating loss of $293 million.

・JPR's market share and unit shipment data for AIB show that AMD's market share gains were halted in their tracks in Q3. While unit shipments for both companies increased, NVDA's unit shipments increased faster.

 

f:id:booniebichon:20161125012128p:plain

 

Investor Takeaway

NVDA's superior GPUs have halted AMD's share gains in the desktop dGC segment, for the time being. Even worse, NVDA has deprived AMD of operating profit.

 

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※ここでのQ1,Q2,1Hは、通常のカレンダーどおりで、NVDAの四半期決算期とはズレているので注意!

 

 Aaron Stuart/Sep 21, 2016

Desktop dGPU Market Trends Q2 2016: AMD Grabs Market Share, But NVDA Remains on Top

 

・Unit sales of desktop dGC are traditionally not strong in Q2. Shipments of GC nearly hit a multi-year low after dropping by around 20.8% from the previous quarter, according to JPR.

 

・During the quarter, AMD managed to slightly improve its shipments and gained market share, whereas NVDA’s unit sales of desktop dGPUs were down. Nonetheless, the latter still commands the lion’s share of the market.

 

The Market Is Changing

 

Before we look at the numbers for Q2 2016, we should take a short look back to understand what is happening on the market of dGPUs and why it is transforming nowadays the way it is transforming.

 

While iGPUs have been around for 15 years, it’s only in the last 5 years that they’ve been a first class citizen in the desktop market.

 

The catalyst for this change was when Intel integrated their GPU into their CPU itself in 2010 with Sandy Bridge.

 

By moving the GPU to a leading-edge process and by allocating ever-greater transistor budgets and die space to its various blocks, performance of their iGPUs started to increase rapidly.

 

Today, higher-end Intel’s iGPUs can successfully compete against entry-level dGPUs, severely curtailing the sub-$100 dGPU market and significantly shrinking TAM of standalone GC.

 

For example, in 2006, the industry sold approximately 84.65 million desktop dAIB. However, unit sales of such components in 2015 dropped to about 44 million units.

 

f:id:booniebichon:20161125015243p:plain

 

 

Even though iGPUs may eventually replace affordable GC, high-end dGPUs continue to gain horsepower every year and their level of performance is miles ahead of iGPUs.

 

Moreover, the population of gamers who need advanced dGC to play their favorite titles has grown.

 

As a result, while the TAM of standalone GPUs is shrinking, the demand for high-performance dGC is growing; the market is (broadly) shifting towards a more enthusiast-centric market.

 

In the recent years shipments of high-end desktop GPUs totaled around 2.8 – 3 million units per year (2.9 million in 2014), but in 2015 sales of such products increased to 5.9 million units.(ハイエンドグラボ市場は、2014年~2015年の1年でほぼ倍増している。)

 

It is impossible to tell when unit sales of desktop dGC hit the bottom and demand for high-end dGC peaks. There are still millions of low-end dGC sold every year and it does not look like they are going to disappear overnight.

 

But given the current trends, it is clear that developers of dGPUs tend to invest more in development of mainstream and high-end processors and less in creation of entry-level chips.

 

〇 Overview of Q2 2016 (unit shipments)

 

In the Q2 of 2016, the industry sold between 62.4 million and 64.3 million PCs, according to IDC and Gartner respectively.

 

Meanwhile, dGPUs were used in 27.78% of PCs, claims JPR. Since the latter does not disclose its overall PC numbers, we can only estimate that shipments of dGPUs (for desktops and notebooks) were between 17.33 and 17.86 million units, based on the numbers from IDC and Gartner.

 

JPR estimates that shipments of standalone GPUs in Q2 2016 were down 14.19% from the previous quarter, and decreased 1.03% from Q2 2015.

 

While unit sales of PCs in general were down YoY – between 4.5% and 5.2%– their shipments did not decrease QoQ.

 

According to Gartner, they remained on the same level and according to IDC they actually increased by nearly two million units. Moreover, JPR claims that unit sales of desktop PCs were up 2.5% QoQ. 

 

But despite relatively strong demand for desktops PCs, shipments of dGC for such PCs declined by 20.8% QoQ, but increased by 0.8% YoY.

 

Desktop Discrete GC Market in Q2 2016 (Data by JPR)

                 Q2 2016                      Q1 2016                Q2 2015

                Share  Shipments    Share Shipments     Share  Shipments

AMD        29.9%  2.82              22.8%     2.7          18%         1.68

NVDA      70%     6.6                77.2%    9.2            81.9%      7.68

 Numbers are in percentage points or in millions. Numbers are approximate.

 

We can estimate that various makers of AIBs sold approximately 9.44 million dGC in Q2 2016, which is slightly up from 9.38 million units in Q2 2015 (see notes below).

f:id:booniebichon:20161125020247p:plain

 

As pointed out above, the Q2 is seasonally not good for unit sales of desktop dGPUs.

 

However, it looks like 2016 seems to be shaping up well for AIBs in general: unit sales of desktop GC in Q1 were 11.92 million (up from 11.3 million in the same period a year ago) and in Q2 they totaled 9.44 million units.

 

Shipments of desktop dGPUs in 1H 2016 increased by approximately 3% YoY to 21.36 million units (which means that AIB suppliers sold at least 650K more dGC than in 1H 2015).

 

〇 Market Shares: AMD Is Regaining Ground Amid Flat Shipments

 

f:id:booniebichon:20161125020747p:plain

 

Historically, AMD commanded 35 – 40% of the desktop dGPU market. Things started to turn south for AMD in Q3 2014 both in terms of shipments and share.(これはGTX980 GTX970の発売時期だよね)

 

By Q2 2015, the company’s share dropped to 18% and unit sales of desktop dGPUs declined to 1.69 million units.

 

By contrast, NVDA was thriving: its market share increased to as high as 82% in Q2 2015, but since the PC market was shrinking, its unit shipments did not grow very significantly.

 

 

 

f:id:booniebichon:20161125021002p:plain

 To regain market presence, AMD had to clear-out old inventory and address niche markets with products like the Radeon R9 Nano.

 

The measures along with low base effect helped the company to demonstrate steady growth of desktop dGPU shipments over the past 12 months.

 

Seasonality did not affect AMD in Q2 2016 and the company managed to increase its shipments by ~100 thousand of units (if our estimates are correct).

 

〇 2016のQ2(4-6)でNVDAが出荷数を減らした

 Unlike its rival AMD, NVDA was affected by seasonality in the Q2, and likely anticipation of its Q2/Q3 product launches. Moreover, the company decided to clear out some of the inventory of older model GCs amid the launch of Pascal-based GeForce 1070 and 1080 GC, according to JPR.

 

This greatly affected actual shipments and market share of NVDA: unit sales decreased by 14% YoY and by 28% QoQ, whereas market share declined to 70%.

 

AMD: Mining and Polaris Help to Drive Growth

 

f:id:booniebichon:20161125021244p:plain

 

f:id:booniebichon:20161125021318p:plain

AMD sold approximately 5.5 million of desktop dGPUs in H1 of 2016, up from 4.2 million in H1 a year ago.

 

The company’s management says that the recent introduction of its Polaris-based Radeon RX 470 and 480 GPUs helped it to increase unit sales in Q2.

  

“Our strong second quarter graphics performance was capped by the launch of our new Polaris-based RX 480 GPUs at the end of June, which helped contribute to our highest desktop channel GPU shipments since the fourth quarter of 2014,” said Lisa Su, CEO of AMD, during the conference call.

 

“We also delivered our third straight quarter of sequential professional graphics revenue growth and believe we gained share driven by increased adoption of FirePro graphics by OEMs as well as several cloud DC GPU compute wins.”

 

Strong mainstream offerings like Radeon RX 470/480 GC could help AMD to further increase shipments of desktop AIBs in the coming months. The company admits that to further boost unit sales, it needs more chips from Global Foundries, but it assures that their yields are improving.

 

“Since then, the demand has continued to be strong and so some of the retailers are out of supply. We do see that the 14 nm LPP yields are good and we are ramping up production steeply.”

 

A good news for AMD is that unit sales of desktop dGC in H2 are traditionally higher than in H1. Therefore, if everything goes well and the company manages to capitalize on its Polaris architecture, it has chances to sell more desktop dGPUs in 2016 than it did in 2015.

 

〇 NVDA: Thanks to Pascal, Gaming GPU Revenue Nearly Sets All-Time Record

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f:id:booniebichon:20161125021740p:plain

From a volume perspective, sales of NVDA’s desktop dGPUs decreased in H1 of 2016 in general (to ~15.81 million units, down 4% YoY) and in Q2 in particular (to ~6.61 million units, down 14% YoY and 22.2% QoQ). A big drop of unit shipments caused a decline of the company’s market share.

 

However, lower unit sales do not always translate into poor financial results. If we take a look at NVDA’s financial results for Q2 FY2017 (started on May 2, ended on July 31, so it is not exactly calendar Q2), we will notice a 18% YoY and a 13% QoQ increase in the company’s gaming GPU revenue.

f:id:booniebichon:20161125021609p:plain

 

While it is not exactly right to compare calendar Q2 with NVDA’s Q2 FY2017, even such comparison gives us an idea what happened in April – July period.

 

Since demand for dGC by mainstream users in Q2 is not strong, the company decided to clear out its older inventory and not pursue volume shipments, but focus on ramping up new Pascal-based products.

 

This clearly cost the company a lot from the market share point of view, but to a certain degree, it stimulated demand for higher-end Pascal GC by gamers. Since the new GeForce GTX cards command a significant price premium, NVDA naturally improved its earnings during the quarter.

 

Demand for NVDA’s latest GC was very high and many observers reported shortages of the new AIBs. The company claims that yields of its GPUs produced using TSMC’s second-gen 16nm FinFET process technology (CLN16FF+) are going to improve, which will clearly amplify its supply.

 

Even though Q2 2016 was not very good for NVDA from unit sales point of view, H2 is going to be better in general. The company will try to capitalize on its comprehensive lineup of mainstream and high-end GPU offerings based on its Pascal architecture.

 

In fact, due to the launch of two GeForce GTX 1060 SKUs in Q3, unit sales of Pascal-based products will inevitably be higher this quarter compared to Q2. However, it remains to be seen whether the company manages to sustain its annual GPU unit sales at ~35 million this year.

 

〇 Wrap Up

 Despite relatively weak shipments of PCs in 2016, unit sales of desktop dGC in the first half of this year are actually higher that unit sales of such products in the same period a year ago.

 

Declines of AMD Radeon sales seem to be over, but the company still has to do a lot to re-capture lost share from NVDA. In Q2 AMD managed to sell approximately 2.8 million of desktop AIBs and commanded 29.9% of the market.

 

With 6.6 million desktop dGPUs sold in Q2(4-6) and 70% share, NVDA remains the leader in this segment of the market despite significant drop of its unit shipments.

 

iGPU is slowly shrinking TAM of dGPUs and going forward, unit sales of entry-level graphics processors will continue to drop.

 

By contrast, sales of high-end desktop AIBs are on the rise, and last year has seen both AMD and NVDA benefit from that. Enthusiasts are still a small part of the big picture, but as GPU prices and sales patterns continue to drift towards the high end, they are an increasingly critical part of the picture.

 

Important Notices

 

JPR does not officially disclose actual unit sales of AMD, NVDA and Intel in its press releases. All unit sales published here are derived from market shares of appropriate vendors.

 

Since in many cases JPR does not disclose quarterly TAM numbers, those numbers are derived from historical numbers published by the company.

 

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 JPRの元の記事(抜粋)

 

NVDA increased everything in Q3 2016. Total GPU shipments up a whopping 20.4%, from last quarter

 

NVDA’s market share increased 2.2% from last quarter and 0.4% from last year, Intel lost 1.6% market share from last quarter, and AMD’s overall share decreased 0.6%, from last quarter

 

This is the latest report from JPR on the GPUs used in PCs. It is reporting on Q3'16 results.

The PC market rose in Q3 from Q2, but declined from the same quarter last year. The QoQ gain was largely due to gaming as well as DC sales.

 

PC suppliers are seeing growth in gaming desktops and notebooks, and hope this will offset the slowdown in overall PC shipments.

 

While they are high ASP systems, the two segments combined can only contribute a few million unit shipments a year, less than the decline of the total PC market.

 

Overall GPU shipments (rounded up) increased 20% from Q2, AMD increased 15% NVDA increased 39% and Intel, increased 18%. YoY overalll GPU shipments increased 0.3%, desktop graphics decreased -4%, notebooks increased 3%.

 

If anyone doubted that the PC was the platform of choice for gaming, this quarter’s results will correct that misconception. The gaming market is lifting the entire PC market and has overwhelmed the console market. 

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(世界規模ではコンソールゲーミングはPCゲーミングと比べてもはやマイナーな存在になってる)

 

NVDA did particularly well in Q3’16, fueled by their Pascal-based product line and the rash of new AAA graphics-demanding titles.

 

Q3(7-9) is typically the strongest from Q2 in the seasonal cycles of the past. For Q3'16 we saw an increase of 20.4% from Q2, and the gain was above the ten-year average of 9.52%.(NVDAのQ3は8-10)

 

The three market leaders, AMD, Intel, and NVDA all introduced new products in H1 while the channel and OEMs sold off older inventory. Q3 saw the channel and OEMs restocking for the holiday season, and doing so with enthusiasm indicating a bullish attitude. 

 

〇 Quick highlights

  • AMD’s overall unit shipments increased 15.38% quarter-to-quarter, Intel’s total shipments increased 17.70% from last quarter, and NVDA’s increased 39.31%.
  • The attach rate of GPUs (includes integrated and dGPUs) to PCs for the quarter was 146% which was up 14.96% from last quarter.
  • dGPUs were in 34.84% of PCs, which is up 7.06%.
  • The overall PC market increased 8.09% quarter-to-quarter, and decreased -5.37% year-to-year.
  • Desktop graphics AIBs that use dGPUs increased 38.16% from last quarter.
  • Q3'16 saw a decrease in tablet shipments from last quarter and saw notebook sales out sell tablets for the first time in three years.

 

Q3 is, on average, usually up from Q2 as the channel and OEMs stock up for the holiday season. Judging by the big overall increase, those resellers are anticipating a strong demand in the 4th quarter.

 

GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped, and most of the PC vendors are guiding cautiously for Q4’16. 

 

One thing to note, the Gaming PC segment, where higher-end GPUs are used, continues to deliver growth for PC makers. New gaming content and the promise of VR help drive the demand for gaming desktops and notebooks.

 

This research finds that global GPU market demand in Q3'16 increased from last quarter, and increased from last year, to 100.30 million units.

 

In recent years, as the gaming ecosystem is shaping up, software and hardware developers, information service providers, and even governments have been attempting to unearth market opportunities coming from this new arena. However, global PC shipment volume is forecast to fall further. 

 

〇 The quarter in general
AMD’s shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs (APU) for desktops decreased -10% from the previous quarter.

 

AMD's shipments were up 19.1% in notebooks. Desktop dGPUs increased 34.7% from last quarter, and notebook discrete shipments increased 23.0%. AMD’s total PC graphics shipments increased 15.4% from the previous quarter.

 

Intel’s desktop processor embedded graphics (EPGs) shipments increased from last quarter by 4.1% and notebook processors increased by 18.8%, and total PC graphics shipments increased 17.7% from last quarter.

 

NVDA’s desktop dGPU shipments were up 39.8% from last quarter; and the company’s notebook dGPU shipments increased 38.7%, and total PC graphics shipments increased 39.3% from last quarter. NVDA attributes the growth to the strong acceptance and demand for its new Pascal line of graphics chips and boards. The company’s share price is at an all-time high.

 

Total dGPUs (desktop and notebook) shipments for the industry increased 35.6% from Q2, and increased 10.1% from last year.

 

〇 おまけ (グラフィックチップ市場全体のユニット数における3社シェア、当然ながらインテルが圧倒的)

f:id:booniebichon:20161125024612p:plain

 

99% of Intel’s non-server processors have graphics, and over 66% of AMD’s non-server processors contain integrated graphics; AMD still ships integrated graphics chipsets (IGPs).

 

It can take the form of a discrete chip, a GPU integrated in the chipset or embedded in the CPU. The average has grown from 1.2 GPUs per PC in 2001 to 1.46 GPUs per PC.

 

 

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PC Add-in board market increased in Q3'16, AMD lost market share, while NVDA gained

Quarter-to-quarter AIBs shipments increased 38.2%, and 9.2% year-to-year.

 

JPR announced estimated PC graphics add-in-board (PC AIB) shipments and suppliers’ market share for Q3'16(7-9).

f:id:booniebichon:20161125025039p:plain

 

AIBs using dGPUs are found in desktop PCs, workstations, servers, and other devices such as scientific instruments. They are sold directly to customers as aftermarket products, or are factory installed by OEMs.

 

In all cases, AIBs represent the higher end of the graphics industry with their discrete chips and private, often large, high-speed memory, as compared to the iGPUs in CPUs that share slower system memory.

 

The primary suppliers of GPUs are AMD and NVDA. There are 48 PC AIB suppliers, the PC AIB OEM customers of the GPU suppliers, which they call “partners.”

 

We have been tracking PC AIB shipments quarterly since 1987—the volume of those boards peaked in 1999, reaching 114 million units, in 2015, only 44 million shipped.

 

The news for the quarter was encouraging and seasonally understandable, QoQ, the PC AIB market increased 38.2%, which is above the ten-year average of 14.3%.  (compared to the desktop PC market, which decreased -7.1%).

 

On YoY basis, we found that total AIB shipments during the quarter rose 9.2%, which is greater than desktop PCs, which fell -17.1%.

 

f:id:booniebichon:20161125025611p:plain

 

〇 Gaming the game changer.

However, in spite of the overall PC churn, somewhat due to tablets and embedded graphics, the PC gaming momentum continues to build and is the bright spot in the AIB market.

The gaming PC (system) market is as vibrant as the dAIB market. All OEMs are investing in Gaming space because demand for Gaming PCs is robust.

 

しかしながら、ゲーミング向け出荷数は、市場全体の出荷数の中の数字には、表れにくい(it won’t show in the overall market numbers), because like gaming GPUs, the gaming PCs are dwarfed by the general-purpose machines.

 

The overall GPU shipments (integrated and discrete) is greater than desktop PC shipments due double-attach—the adding of a second (or third) AIB to a system with integrated processor graphics.

 

The attach rate of AIBs to desktop PCs has declined from a high of 63% in Q1 2008 to 54% this quarter, an increase of 48.7% from last quarter which was outstanding. Compared to this quarter last year it increased 31.7% which was outstanding.